Either a Harris or a Trump presidency will be reflationary despite their varying economic objectives, tax policies, and spending priorities. Nevertheless, Trump pledges of higher tariffs across the board to 10%-20% alongside at minimum 60% on imports from China suggest near-term implications for price rises might be more significant under Trump.
A Harris victory this November would likely offer a greater degree of continuity of existing economic trends, maintaining the current balance of risks, facilitating a continuation of gradual rate reductions. Conversely, a Trump win may upend existing expectations and force a re-assessment of economic and inflation outlooks and the timing and speed of central-bank easing.
Under such a scenario, tariffs…
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