FX Guys

Baltic States See Divergence in Their Macro-fiscal Outlooks

Source: Eurostat, Scope Ratings

Lithuania’s Growth Prospects Diverge from Estonia’s and Latvia’s

Indeed, Lithuania’s economy has outperformed its neighbours’ (Figure 3), with growth that we estimate at 2.3% this year, and expected to rise to 2.9% in 2025 as private investment recovers and household consumption remains robust.

Manufacturing activity in Lithuania is experiencing a robust rebound (Figure 5), in part reflecting closer ties to Poland, where the economy has turned out to be among the fastest growing in Europe over 2023-24. Conversely, Estonian and Latvian manufacturing have suffered from their exposures to the weak Finnish and Swedish construction markets.

Lithuania’s economic recovery has also been driven by buoyant services exports (Figure…
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