As outlined by the government coalition, the necessary adjustment requires politically sensitive reforms of the welfare system, which accounts for more than half of government expenditure, to address costs related to the ageing population, projected to rise from 20% of GDP in 2000 to 30% by 2050.
Like similarly-rated European sovereigns such as France (rated by Scope AA- with a Stable Outlook), reforming social protection is contentious, as reflected in recent protests, so likely compromises within the coalition and in parliament could slow the pace of reform.
Assuming moderate fiscal reduction, Belgium’s budget deficit will average around 4.8% of GDP over 2025-29, resulting in an increase in debt to GDP to around 114% by the end of that period from 104.7% at end-2024,…
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