FX Guys

Bond investors brace for recession as Fed expected to slow pace of tightening

“Things are coming off the boil here,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management. “There is a de-risking that’s happening, and we’re seeing flows out of equities into higher quality parts of the market such as fixed income.” That move has stood in contrast to a recent rally in stocks, where recession concerns are less apparent and hopes of a so-called soft landing, where inflation eases and growth remains resilient, have emerged.

The S&P 500 has risen 4.6% year-to-date and the Nasdaq Composite is up nearly 9% in a rebound that has lifted many of the names that were beaten down in last year’s equity rout.

Some equity investors are nevertheless playing it safe, expecting the current rally in stocks to wilt if a recession hits. U.S. equity funds have witnessed outflows for ten straight weeks, even as indexes charge higher, with investors pulling some $1.14 billion in the latest week, according to Refinitiv Lipper…
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