Download Scope Ratings’ 2024 CEE Outlook here.
For Central and Eastern European EU members (CEE-11)*, we are forecasting a reduction in headline inflation from an estimated 11.2% last year to 4.6% in 2024 (Figure 1). Strong nominal wage growth and a potential wage spiral signal downside risks.
External deficits will remain relatively stable, owing to a gradually reversing regional terms-of-trade shock, constraining import growth amid lower domestic demand and sufficient natural gas reserves. At the same time, export performance continues to lag due to weak external demand.
Figure 1. Headline inflation, annual average, %
