FX Guys

France: Minority Government May Mitigate Risk of Fiscal Slippage, but Reforms Unlikely

Forming a Grand Coalition Would Test France’s Ability for Political Pragmatism

Forming a government with an outright majority of 289 seats will require a grand coalition between the centrist presidential, socialist and liberal conservative parties. This would imply centre-left parties abandoning previous alliances with the radical-left, a major shift from pre-election positioning.

Reaching a workable coalition for any centre-left or centre-right prime minister will thus depend on striking a delicate balance across the political spectrum in a country that lacks a history of coalition building common in many European countries, including Germany and Belgium.

Finally, if a government led by the radical left prove unworkable or no political agreement is found for a centrist alternative, President Macron would likely appoint a technocratic government that would remain in place…
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