We forecast global growth of 3.2% this year and 3.4% next year, similar to the 3.2% in 2023. Our growth estimates are 0.1-0.2pps above our outlook at the end of last year and well above estimated global annual growth potential of about 2.6%. Economic growth has repeatedly defied consensus expectations of recession. The soft landing supports fundamental and transactional credit, anchoring spending and investment and holding unemployment and non-performing loans at low levels.
The euro-area economy has picked up in recent months judging by Q1 GDP growth and purchasing manager surveys, hence our forecast of growth of 1.0% this year and 1.7% in 2025. This takes into account tepid growth in Germany of 0.2% this year, although we believe that will improve to 1.4% next year. France and Italy are growing slightly below potential rates. Spain and several former crisis-hit economies of the euro-area periphery continue to grow…
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