Recent above-trend growth for Greece has been fuelled by strong tourism proceeds, robust private consumption (deploying remaining savings from the pandemic crisis), and better investment given strengthened investor confidence. Our average growth estimate of 1.4% from 2026 to 2029 optimistically assumes no meaningful crisis out to 2029 and no annual recession over that horizon.
Greece has maintained progress on reforms and investments of Greece 2.0, the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), and the EU Cohesion Policy. On 16 October, the European Commission disbursed the fourth payment of EUR 998.6m in grants from Greece’s EUR 35.9bn Recovery and Resilience Plan. A total of 51% of all RRP funding has been paid out to date.
While investment today is higher than before the pandemic, it remains low at just 14% of output in the year to Q2 2024. That is below the euro-area average of 21%.
Enhancing labour market flexibility remains a priority. Unemployment had declined…
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