That’s what the most up-to-date Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows, and it fits hand in glove with the rise in the two-year yield to a 16-year high last week and the most inverted 2-year/10-year yield curve in 40 years.
The CFTC positioning data is for the week ending Feb. 7. It is lagging by three weeks due to a cyber attack a month ago on the derivatives platform of ION Group, which has delayed trading firms’ reporting.
Still, it is the latest snapshot of how speculative accounts are playing the dramatic repricing of Fed expectations and the short end of the U.S. bond market.
As of Feb. 7, funds’ net short position in two-year Treasury futures stood at a record 658,802 contracts, up by more than 80,000 contracts from the week before.
If funds have remained on the right side of the continued rise in yields since then, their short position is probably even greater now.
On the other hand, the more the record short position…
Read More
