FX Guys

Italy: Fiscal Consolidation on Track But High Debt, Structural Weaknesses Persist

The government’s medium-term budget plans include faster fiscal consolidation, targeting an exit from the EDP by 2026. Achieving this will depend largely on how successfully reforms improve the effectiveness of public spending, reduce tax evasion and boost employment and income taxes. The phasing out of the Superbonus should help reduce public debt to GDP from 2027 if continued primary fiscal surpluses offset the high cost of servicing Italy’s public debt.

Growth Potential Dependent on EU Support Measures, Challenging Demographics

Scope Ratings expects the Italian economy to grow by around 1% per year, in line with the government’s medium-term structural budget plan. Growth over the coming years…
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