July and September: The Cut That (Probably) Won’t Come
Despite market optimism and political pressure, Powell is unlikely to hint at rate cuts in July or September. These near-term possibilities may be tempting for some, but Powell’s cautious approach suggests he’ll pour cold water on such hopes. Instead, he’ll likely emphasize the risks of cutting too soon and potentially reigniting inflationary pressures.
December: The Market’s Betting Favorite
While Powell won’t explicitly endorse any timeline, the market’s current bet on a December rate cut aligns more closely with the Fed’s cautious stance. Powell may acknowledge this possibility indirectly by discussing the potential for easing later in the year if economic conditions continue to improve.
Dodging Political Curveballs
Congressional…
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