Q1 GDP Slows to 1.4% as Initial Claims Fall, Durable Goods Orders Rise

Unemployment Claims

For the week ending June 22, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims fell to 233,000, 3,000 below market expectations of 236,000, and 6,000 below the previous week’s revised level of 239,000. Despite this decrease, the 4-week moving average rose to 236,000, up by 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average, indicating a gradual increase in jobless claims. The insured unemployment rate remained stable at 1.2%, but the number of insured unemployed rose by 18,000 to 1.839 million, the highest level since November 2021. This increase points to underlying weaknesses in the labor market. Given the rising 4-week moving average and the increase in insured unemployment, the outlook for the labor market is bearish, signaling potential challenges in employment stability.