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US LEI Declines for Second Month in September, Heightening Recession Concerns for 2025

  • Factory New Orders: Continued weakness in factory new orders, which has been heavily impacted by a global manufacturing slowdown, remained a significant drag on the index.
  • Inverted Yield Curve: The yield curve remained inverted, a signal that often points to recessionary pressures.
  • Building Permits: A decrease in building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity, further weighed down the LEI.
  • Consumer Sentiment: Consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was lukewarm, reflecting cautious sentiment about the economy’s trajectory.

While there were some positive developments in other LEI components, they were not enough to counterbalance the prevailing weakness. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager at The Conference Board, remarked that these indicators align with their expectations for moderate economic growth at the end of 2024 and…
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