Uncertainty Surrounds the Future Path of the Trade War
The US trade deficit may well be reduced from the current highs (Figure 2), but this is unlikely to be driven by a near-term structural re-orientation in trade but rather because of the sharp downturn in the domestic economy, moving from a state of over-heating entering 2025 to facing recession.
Pressure has been building on the administration from scepticism among segments of the electorate on the handling of the economy, as price rises accelerate rather than ease. Furthermore, 54% of families have market-based retirement plans,…
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