How do you make money in foreign exchange volatility markets when there is no volatility? You get creative.
It’s an understatement to say FX options desks have had a rough year, despite the macro conditions seemingly suggesting otherwise. The Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index traded as low as 5.97 on July 7 – the worst level since the beginning of 2022. Although levels have risen since the yen carry unwind in August, and the US election is on the horizon, options traders are still gasping for some volatility action.
When implied and realised volatility are supressed, premiums for vanilla structures often get eaten up and appetite from hedge funds diminishes. Where banks can entice some interest, however, is in the more complex exotic space.
These products…
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