The following charts should be relatively self explanatory:
1. WTI weekly chart + volume profile. I feel we are capped at $36 to the downside for now purely based off technicals & volume. We have the potential to hit the yearly lows.
2. Strong USD = weak WTI. However, looking at the following dollar index chart, we have a potentially huge collapse in the USD. Note the next chart;
3. You can view the correlation between dollar and oil here:
4. The USDJPY had a big head and shoulders in Q4 2015. At the same time, there was a huge bullish inefficiency leading up to the move. Take another look at figure 2. We have pretty much the same thing occurring with the dollar index.
5. Take a look at the dollar index on a monthly timeframe… you can clearly see the bullish inefficiency (highlighted):
I have previously mentioned my USD bearishness here back in May I still hold very much the same view.